As we enter 2026, the global air transport and tourism sectors are navigating a complex and converging risk landscape. Even after a record net profit of $39.5 billion in 2025, airlines operate on razor-thin margins. At an expected 3.9% net margin next year, the industry earns just $7.90 per passenger, less than the profit from an iPhone cover.
Understanding the risks ahead is not academic. It is highly essential for planning, resilience, and growth in an industry that supports 87 million jobs and 4% of global GDP.
As per IATA’s risk assessment for 2026 with insights from Marie Owens Thomsen, SVP Sustainability & Chief Economist, here are the key risks shaping aviation:
1. Policy fragmentation: “Me-first” policies threaten global networks
The post-World War II multilateral system is under strain, with global institutions losing influence while national and regional priorities surge. In air transport, this translates into competing frameworks for CO₂ emissions, fragmented taxation, and regulatory inconsistencies.
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has spent 80 years harmonising global aviation standards, yet today airlines face conflicting environmental mandates, regional carbon taxes, and divergent safety regulations. Fragmented policy inflates operational costs, creates competitive distortions, and slows decarbonisation – all while contributing little to global emissions reductions.
For travel and tourism providers, this means planning international routes, partnerships, and pricing strategies is increasingly complex. Flexibility, scenario planning, and investment in compliance capabilities will be critical in 2026.
2. Supply chain disruptions: Aircraft orders and efficiency stalled
The backlog of aircraft orders remains at record highs, with delivery mismatches expected to persist until 2031–2034. While yields benefit from high load factors, the inability to scale fleets hampers growth, limits route expansion, and slows improvements in fuel efficiency and decarbonisation.
Airlines and airports face cascading effects: delayed aircraft impact scheduling, connectivity, and cargo capacity, while tourism operators may struggle with fluctuating seat availability. For aviation-adjacent businesses, understanding supply bottlenecks and planning for operational volatility is no longer optional, it’s survival.
3. Climate change and extreme weather: Disruption is the new normal
Extreme weather events, commodity price swings, and infrastructure stress will increasingly shape travel and trade flows. The UN reports 123.2 million displaced persons globally in 2024, nearly double the number a decade ago. Climate-driven migration, coupled with nations’ tightening borders, will influence passenger patterns, visa regimes, and tourism demand.
A stable, well-financed energy transition is key to decarbonising aviation. Yet fragmented policies and insufficient financing threaten progress, leaving airlines exposed to stranded assets, rising operational costs, and reputational risk. Travel providers must factor climate risk into route planning, insurance, and customer experience strategies.
4. Cyber threats and artificial intelligence: Digital risk is intensifying
Air transport’s critical infrastructure makes it a prime target for cyberattacks. Artificial intelligence amplifies risks, from automated cyber intrusions to disinformation campaigns that erode trust. Airlines, airports, and online travel agencies are all vulnerable, as are broader networks like ticketing, distribution, and logistics systems.
AI also brings operational uncertainties – automation may eventually enhance productivity, but proof remains limited. Meanwhile, job displacement, misinformation, and privacy breaches pose reputational and financial threats. For tourism operators and airlines alike, investing in cybersecurity and AI risk mitigation will be non-negotiable in 2026.
5. Macro-economic outlook: Currency, oil and slow growth
Global financial conditions are complex: the US dollar is trending weaker, offering relief to non-USD-based operators, particularly airlines whose costs are 50% USD-denominated. Oil markets are shifting structurally as electrification and LNG adoption dampen demand while supply grows, putting downward pressure on prices – a welcome relief for fuel bills but potentially disruptive for fossil jet fuel availability in certain regions.
Debt levels are historically high, global GDP growth is modest, and inflation pressures remain uneven. While a severe slowdown seems unlikely, the convergence of policy fragmentation, supply chain stress, and climate volatility reduces flexibility, increasing the risk of policy missteps. Tourism and aviation players must maintain agile pricing, hedging strategies, and risk-aware expansion plans.
IATA on championing the value of aviation
Despite these challenges, air transport remains a uniquely dynamic engine of growth. Beyond flying, the industry strengthens agriculture, restores habitats, supports energy independence, boosts innovation, and underpins global trade. Even in a fragile macro environment, travel and tourism can act as catalysts for economic recovery and sustainable development.
In 2026, understanding and navigating these risks is simply essential. Airlines, airports, travel agencies, and tourism boards that embrace resilience, anticipate disruption, and champion sustainability will not only survive but thrive in the years ahead.
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